RESULTS: 3871 - 3880 of 3914
Chapter 11. Regional Climate Projections. page 11-48. 1241
The uncertainty around the projected changes is large
15 however: projections from different CGCMs produce a wide range of values (signal-to-noise ratio
16 1) and the changes do not scale well between different SRES scenarios. Also, CGCMs do not
17 resolve well the regions important mesoscale convection dynamics. The averages for the entire
18 region hide important north-south differences: the north is projected to experience precipitation
19 increase and the south, a decrease.
Chapter 2. Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. page 2-17. 65
Since then
16 concentrations have decreased rapidly, driven by its relatively short lifetime of 4.9 years and phase-out
17 under the Protocols, to levels in 2003 less than 40% of the levels when AGAGE measurements began in
18 1978 (Prinn et al., 2005a).
Chapter 2. Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. page 2-44. 92
Myhre and Myhre
36 (2003) examined the implications of varying the albedo of different vegetation types either together or
-2-2
37 separately, and found the RF relative to PNV to vary from -0.65 W m to positive 0.47 W m; however, the
38 positive RFs occurred in only a few cases and resulted from large reductions in surface albedo in semi-arid
39 regions on conversion to pasture, so were considered unrealistic by the studys authors. The single most
40 important factor for the uncertainty in the study by Myhre and Myhre (2003) was found to be the surface
41 albedo for cropland.
Chapter 8. Climate Models and their Evaluation. page 8-58. 832
However, variants of the lower-
37 tropospheric stability's measure, that can predict boundary-layer cloud amount as well as the Klein and
38 Hartmann (1993)'s measure, would not necessarily predict an increase in low-level clouds in a warmer
39 climate (Williams et al., 2005; Wood, 2005).
Chapter 9. Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. page 9-59. 987
Then, the probability of the different parameter
40 settings (and with it, the different equilibrium sensitivities associated with these parameter settings) is
41 determined from the models ability to simulate LGM climate. Annan et al. (2005b) used a low-resolution
42 version of the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC atmospheric GCM coupled to a mixed layer ocean.
Chapter 10. Global Climate Projections. page 10-23. 1067
A relatively solid understanding of
45 glacial inception exists wherein a change in seasonal incoming solar radiation (warmer winters and colder
46 summers) associated with changes in the Earths axial tilt, longitude of perihelion and the precession of its
47 elliptical orbit around the sun is required (Crucifix and Loutre, 2002; Yoshimori et al., 2002).
Chapter 8. Climate Models and their Evaluation. page 8-109. 909
First-Order Draft Chapter 8 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
1
2
4
3
2
C)
o
1
0
-1
SST Error (
-2
-3
-4
90N6030EQ306090S
BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1ECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GIPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4
BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)
CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)
CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2
CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)GISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMPCMPCMPCMPCMPCM
CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3GISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHUKMO-HadCM3UKMO-HadCM3UKMO-HadCM3UKMO-HadCM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0GISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERUKMO-HadGEM1UKMO-HadGEM1UKMO-HadGEM1
3 ECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMINM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0Mean ModelMean Model
4
5 Figure 8.3.7.
Chapter 8. Climate Models and their Evaluation. page 8-120. 894
First-Order Draft Chapter 8 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
1
2 a)
)
150
125
100
75
50
Outgoing Clear-Sky SW (W/m^225
90N6030EQ306090S
3
4
5 b)
)
150
125
100
75
50
Outgoing SW Radiation (W/m^225
90N6030EQ306090S
BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)
BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2
CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1PCMPCMPCMPCMPCM
CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)GISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMUKMO-HadCM3UKMO-HadCM3UKMO-HadCM3UKMO-HadCM3
CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)GISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHUKMO-HadGEM1UKMO-HadGEM1UKMO-HadGEM1
CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3GISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERMean ModelMean Model
CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0Obs (ERBE)
ECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMIPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4
ECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GMIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)
6
7
8 Figure 8.3.5.
Chapter 8. Climate Models and their Evaluation. page 8-122. 896
First-Order Draft Chapter 8 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
1
2
3 (a)
)
300
250
200
150
Outgoing LW Radiation (W/m^2100
90N6030EQ306090S
4
5
6 (b)
)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Outgoing LW Radiation (W/m^20
90N6030EQ306090S
BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1BCC-CM1FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0FGOALS-g1.0MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)MIROC3.2(medres)
BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0BCCR-BCM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.0MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2MRI-CGCM2.3.2
CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3CCSM3GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1GFDL-CM2.1PCMPCMPCMPCM
CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)CGCM3.1(T47)GISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMGISS-AOMUKMO-HadCM3UKMO-HadCM3UKMO-HadCM3
CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)CGCM3.1(T63)GISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHGISS-EHUKMO-HadGEM1UKMO-HadGEM1
CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3CNRM-CM3GISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERGISS-ERMean Model
CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0CSIRO-Mk3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0INM-CM3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMECHAM5/MPI-OMIPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4IPSL-CM4
ECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GECHO-GMIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(hires)
7
8
9 Figure 8.3.7.
Chapter 2. Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. page 2-11. 59
For the RF calculation the above data from Law Dome glacier in the Australian Antarctic Territory
51 are used because they show the highest age resolution (~5 years) of any ice core records in existence and the
52 N-S gradient for CO2 is less than 1 ppm. In addition the high precision data from the cores are connected to
53 direct observational records of atmospheric CO2 from Cape Grim, Tasmania.